The information revolution is driving exponential growth in data, networks, and computing power. This growth is fueled by the proliferation of connected devices, with an estimated 22 billion devices in use today and a projected increase to 30 billion by 2023. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a major contributor to this growth, with smart meters, medical devices, home appliances, and industrial applications leading the way. This interconnectedness generates massive amounts of data, with global data traffic estimated at 250+ exabytes per month in 2020.
National security considerations are increasingly focused on quantum technology. The White House's Critical and Emerging Technologies List Update in February 2022 categorized quantum technology into five areas: quantum computing, materials and fabrication techniques, post-quantum cryptography, quantum sensing, and quantum networking. The Biden administration's National Security Memorandum on Quantum Computing emphasizes US leadership in this field while mitigating risks to vulnerable cryptographic systems.
Beyond quantum technology, other emerging technologies are shaping the future of warfare. Artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, autonomy, robotics, directed energy, hypersonics, and biotechnology are all seen as crucial for future combat. These technologies have the potential to increase combat efficiency and accelerate the pace of combat, potentially leading to destabilizing consequences.
The US government recognizes the importance of foundational technologies like AI/ML, quantum technology, and bioengineering. These technologies are seen as essential for better decision-making, avoiding strategic surprise, and gaining a strategic advantage. Microelectronics and nanomanufacturing are also considered foundational, enabling the miniaturization of devices and packing more computing power into smaller, lighter, and portable forms.
To maintain its technological leadership, the US government is encouraged to "follow" in areas where private investment is strong. This includes space-based sensors, miniaturized, long-lasting batteries, robotics, and AI/ML. By leveraging commercial technology, the government can create effective dual-use products that benefit both civilian and military applications.
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