External Forces:

The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan has created a power vacuum, attracting China and Russia to expand their influence in the region driven by Great Power Competition. This competition could lead to instability and social upheavals, potentially triggering popular revolutions, regime changes, or civil wars. Foreign powers may exploit these situations by supporting proxies or intervening directly in conflicts.

Regional Dynamics:

Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious modernization program, Vision 2030, aims to diversify the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil. However, the Kingdom's history of suppressing dissent and its close ties to the United States raise concerns about its leadership role in the region.
Iran: The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Iran, exacerbated by the government's inadequate public health response and ongoing US sanctions. Iran views Saudi Arabia as its primary threat due to historical Sunni-Shia tensions, competing regional objectives, and Saudi Arabia's military strength.

Internal Forces:

Economic Challenges - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced a slowdown in economic growth, with the average growth rate declining from 4.6% between 2000-2009 to 3% between 2010-2019. This has resulted in most MENA countries lagging behind their income peers in terms of income per capita growth.
Technological Adoption and Regulation - While the Middle East has seen rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), regulatory frameworks and ethical standards are lagging behind. This lack of regulation creates challenges for data management, transfer, storage, sharing, and use, hindering potential digital transformation.
Internet Restrictions - Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have imposed restrictions on free internet calling apps like WhatsApp, Skype, and FaceTime to protect their state-owned telecommunications companies. This has negative consequences for low-paid migrant workers who rely on these apps to communicate with their families.

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